Pope Week 2015: Will a Million Pilgrims Turn Out?

It’s finally upon us: the week of the pope’s visit to the United States, and specifically to Philadelphia. With mere days left to go until the pontiff touches down in the City of Brotherly Love, the question on every city official’s mind is, how many people are actually going to turn out to see Pope Francis?

By this time next week, the pope will have left town. How many pilgrims will show up to see him?

Early estimates over the summer had estimates between 1 and 1.5 million in terms of crowds expected to show up, but some signs now indicate that number could be lower. As of the time I’m writing this, there are still an estimated 1,000 hotel rooms still vacant for next weekend. SEPTA has sold only about a third of its special regional rail passes for the papal weekend, and south New Jersey’s commuter rail PATCO had sold less than a sixth of their special passes. Plans to turn Fairmount Park into “Francis Festival Grounds” for camping were dispensed with when there was a lack of interest. And charter bus reservations are far below what was originally projected.

Experts have wondered if pilgrims were turned off by early indications that it was going to be too hard to get to where the pope is going to be. Mass street closures and traffic boxes may have intimidated would-be visitors, who were wary of the mayor saying that they might have to walk for miles. In response to negative views of the strict security protocols, Philadelphia released the “I’ll Be There” promotional campaign. Involving local businesses, the mayor’s office sought to do some last-minute damage control on public perception.

Ultimately, nobody knows yet how many visitors will show up to see Pope Francis. We’ll continue to watch teh indicators as the week rolls on.